Nearest model hour
AQI-eq 0
0.0 µg/m³ · Nov 13, 4:00 PM
Smoke forecast · updates every 6 hours
Oregon Smoke Map and 48-Hour Forecast
Latest published point forecast
Current and 48-hour smoke outlook for Bend Downtown / Old Mill
From the Nov 13, 10:00 AM model run. Modeled smoke is a planning guide, not an official AQI reading.
48-hour peak
AQI-eq 16
2.9 µg/m³ · Nov 15, 12:00 AM
Forecast data status
Loading the interactive smoke map…
Current and peak smoke forecasts for each location are shown above while the detailed map and tables load.
Current conditions remain available from AirNow while the next forecast cycle is published.
How this forecast works
Where does the smoke forecast come from?
Current readings come from AirNow, the EPA-led network of air quality monitors. They are real measurements, though they stay preliminary until the reporting agencies review them. The smoke map comes from NOAA's HRRR-Smoke model, which forecasts wildfire smoke near the ground for the next 48 hours.
Beyond 48 hours, the location cards switch to coarser models. Through day 3 they use NOAA's National Air Quality Forecast Capability. That regional model covers all fine particles, not just smoke, and is adjusted to match past monitor readings. For days 4 to 7 they use GEOS-FP, a coarse global model from NASA that gives only a rough signal.
Each location card names its source, the model run it came from and a confidence level. That way you can tell a detailed forecast from a rough outlook.
FAQ
Central Oregon smoke forecast questions
Is this an official AQI forecast?
No. The current AirNow readings are official measurements from air quality monitors. The map shows modeled wildfire smoke, colored on the same scale as the AQI to help with planning.
How accurate is the 48-hour smoke map?
The smoke model updates every six hours and shows the Cascades and High Desert in fine detail. Changes in fire activity and wind can still make it wrong about when a plume arrives.
Why is the outlook for days 3 to 7 less detailed?
No model can forecast smoke in fine detail that far ahead. For those days, the location cards use coarser forecasts of fine particles. Each card shows how confident the forecast is and how it may affect comfort, instead of a detailed map.
What does near-surface smoke mean?
The map represents smoke close to ground level, where people breathe. It does not show the full height or shape of an elevated smoke plume.