Central Oregon Smoke Map and Forecast
Hourly 3 km HRRR-Smoke guidance for the first 48 hours, current AirNow monitors, and lower-confidence point guidance and comfort impacts through day seven.
Forecast data status
Loading the smoke forecast…
Checking the latest published HRRR-Smoke cycle and AirNow monitors.
Current conditions remain available from AirNow while the next forecast cycle is published.
Methodology
Three sources, three confidence levels
AirNow is the observed AQI anchor and is preliminary real-time monitoring data. HRRR-Smoke predicts wildfire-smoke mass near the surface at native 3 km resolution through 48 hours.
NAQFC supplies operational, bias-corrected regional total-PM2.5 guidance through hour 72. GEOS-FP is coarse experimental global guidance used only as a low-confidence planning signal after that.
The sources are never blended into a falsely precise number. Every card identifies its source, cycle, and confidence.
FAQ
Central Oregon smoke forecast questions
Is this an official AQI forecast?
No. Current AirNow AQI values are official public-reporting observations. The 3 km layer is modeled wildfire-smoke mass from HRRR-Smoke, and its colors are only AQI-equivalent concentration context.
How precise is the first 48 hours?
HRRR-Smoke is native 3 km guidance updated in full 48-hour cycles every six hours. It can resolve the Cascades and High Desert better than global models, but fire emissions and wind shifts can still make plume timing wrong.
Why is the day 3–7 outlook less specific?
There is no credible 3 km smoke forecast at that range. The longer-range point cards use coarser PM2.5 guidance and show source confidence and comfort impacts rather than a high-resolution smoke map.
What does 8 m above ground mean?
The HRRR MASSDEN field represents near-surface smoke at the model level approximately 8 meters above the modeled ground. It is not an elevated-plume or visibility-only field.