Nearest model hour
AQI-eq 1
0.2 µg/m³ · Sep 24, 9:00 PM
Smoke forecast · updates every 6 hours
Oregon Smoke Map and 48-Hour Forecast
Latest published point forecast
Current and 48-hour smoke outlook for Bend Downtown / Old Mill
Model cycle Sep 24, 5:00 PM; modeled smoke is planning guidance, not official AQI.
48-hour peak
AQI-eq 2
0.4 µg/m³ · Sep 26, 9:00 AM
Forecast data status
Loading the interactive smoke map…
Current and peak point guidance is shown above while the detailed map and tables load.
Current conditions remain available from AirNow while the next forecast cycle is published.
Methodology
Three sources, three confidence levels
AirNow is the observed AQI anchor and is preliminary real-time monitoring data. HRRR-Smoke predicts wildfire-smoke mass near the surface at native 3 km resolution through 48 hours.
NAQFC supplies operational, bias-corrected regional total-PM2.5 guidance through hour 72. GEOS-FP is coarse experimental global guidance used only as a low-confidence planning signal after that.
The sources are never blended into a falsely precise number. Every card identifies its source, cycle, and confidence.
FAQ
Central Oregon smoke forecast questions
Is this an official AQI forecast?
No. Current AirNow AQI values are official public-reporting observations. The map shows modeled wildfire-smoke mass translated into AQI-equivalent colors for planning context.
How precise is the first 48 hours?
The near-term smoke forecast updates every six hours and covers the Cascades and High Desert in detail, but fire emissions and wind shifts can still make plume timing wrong.
Why is the day 3–7 outlook less specific?
There is no credible high-resolution smoke forecast at that range. The longer-range point cards use coarser PM2.5 guidance and show source confidence and comfort impacts rather than a detailed smoke map.
What does near-surface smoke mean?
The map represents smoke close to ground level, where people breathe. It does not show the full height or shape of an elevated smoke plume.